Kurdish Policy Analysis

  Economy-related dimensions The economic fallout of the Israeli-US war on Iran, now entering its third week, is becoming clearer. Seasoned Washington-based reporter Laura Rozen  noted  on Mar. 15, “[US President Donald] Trump [is] putting his economic advisors, energy and interior secretaries on the Sunday shows, rather than his national security advisor, secretary of state, intelligence officials, or military leaders. What does that tell you?” Iran has intensified warnings aimed at Gulf Arab states. Tehran has urged residents near major Emirati ports to evacuate their homes, claiming that US forces are using such facilities to support strikes against Iran and thus signaling that they could become future targets of Iran. A similar warning was reportedly issued for several districts in Doha on Mar. 15. According to Bloomberg  estimates , if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial traffic for around two months, Qatar and Kuwait could see GDP contraction...

  Iraq Faces Growing Crisis Amid Escalating Iran War Conflict Iraq is increasingly becoming a battleground in the ongoing Iran war, facing strikes from both Iranian and U.S. forces that threaten to spiral the nation into deeper chaos. As the conflict approaches its two-week mark, Iraq’s situation worsens daily, characterized by disruptions to Gulf shipping and numerous attacks on its oil fields and essential infrastructure. This has severely hampered the country’s oil exports, which are vital for Baghdad’s economy—over 90% of government revenue relies on oil trade. Kurdish officials have indicated that should the shutdown of oil exports persist, the Iraqi government could find itself unable to meet its extensive public-sector payroll by next month, raising the specter of widespread unrest. In an effort to mitigate this, the federal government has sought to negotiate with northern Kurdish leaders to resume exports through a pipeline to Turkey. However, these discussions remain stall...