Iraq at the Center of Iran’s Regional Playbook — Risks and Consequences

 Iran’s Strategy in Iraq Evolves as Tehran Seeks Influence Amid Regional Turmoil

By Pshtiwan Faraj , Kurdish Policy Analysis

Erbil/Iraq — Iran’s efforts to expand its strategic footprint in Iraq are emerging as a pivotal element in Tehran’s broader approach to regional influence, diplomats and analysts say, a stance that could reshape power dynamics across the Middle East.

Since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein, Iran has incrementally deepened its political, military and economic ties in the neighbouring Arab state, exploiting shared Shiite connections and Baghdad’s internal divisions to build influence that extends far beyond Iraq’s borders.

Iran’s influence has been rooted in a multifaceted strategy that combines political support for allied Shiite parties in Baghdad, financial investments, and backing for paramilitary formations such as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). These networks have helped Tehran to embed itself within Iraq’s security architecture and political landscape.

In recent years, that strategy has drawn renewed attention as Iraq finds itself at the fulcrum of escalating tensions involving the United States, neighbouring states and internal Iraqi factions. Tehran’s use of Iraqi territory and allied groups to project power has prompted concerns in Washington and among regional capitals that Iran could leverage its positioning to counter U.S. influence and buffer against external pressure.

Analysts describe Iran’s approach as a blend of statecraft and proxy influence, designed to maintain a friendly government in Baghdad while ensuring that Iraq does not emerge as a strategic threat or become fully aligned with Western interests. The deepening economic ties — including substantial trade and energy links — further cement Iran’s role in Iraq, even as some political actors in Baghdad seek greater autonomy from Tehran.

Recent developments have underscored the risks inherent in Iran’s regional strategy. Iraq has seen periodic missile and drone strikes attributed to Iranian forces and affiliated militias, particularly in the volatile Kurdistan Region, where Iranian Kurdish opposition groups and their supporters have faced sustained pressure. Baghdad’s government has publicly condemned such operations, warning against using Iraqi territory as a staging ground for foreign conflicts.

The broader regional backdrop also complicates Tehran’s objectives. Israel’s strikes deep into Iranian territory late last month and the subsequent escalation have amplified concerns among Iraq’s political class about entanglement in wider hostilities. A growing number of Iraqi officials have called for national sovereignty to be upheld, resisting pressures that could pull Baghdad further into the orbit of external conflicts.

Yet despite these tensions, Tehran’s influence remains resilient. Some Iraqi election results have favoured pro‑Iran militias, even as domestic debates continue over the role of armed groups in state structures and efforts to integrate or reform the PMF.

Diplomats suggest that Iran’s long‑term strategy hinges on maintaining a balance between projecting power and avoiding outright domination that could provoke a broad backlash within Iraq. This calibrated engagement allows Tehran to preserve influence while mitigating the risks of open confrontation with Iraqi forces or rival foreign powers.

As regional fault lines continue to shift, Iraq will likely remain a central arena in Iran’s strategic calculus, with implications for U.S. policy, Gulf Arab states and the unfolding geopolitical landscape across West Asia.

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