Kurdish Policy Analysis

  The future of Iranian Kurdistan (often called Rojhelat by Kurds) is uncertain and will depend on several political, regional, and internal factors. The Kurdish regions inside Iran —including provinces like Kurdistan Province , West Azerbaijan Province , Kermanshah Province , and Ilam Province —sit at the intersection of domestic Iranian politics and wider Middle Eastern geopolitics. Below are the main realistic scenarios analysts discuss for the coming decades. 1. Continued Centralized Control (Most Likely Short-Term) The most probable near-term future is continued rule from Tehran with limited autonomy . The government of Tehran traditionally maintains strong centralized authority and is highly sensitive to territorial integrity. Kurdish political activism is often restricted, and Kurdish parties such as Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran and Komala operate largely in exile or underground. Possible developments in this scenario: Cultural rights may slowly expand (la...

  Iraq has been cut off from trade via the Strait of Hormuz as the war with Iran has developed over the last two weeks. An oil and trade dispute between Baghdad and the autonomous  Kurdistan Regional  Government in northern Iraq is having ramifications for Baghdad and could also present larger ramifications for the region. Iraq  has been cut off from trade via the Strait of Hormuz as the war with Iran has developed over the last two weeks. One option for the country would be to export oil through the Kurdistan Region, which has a pipeline to Turkey. However, Baghdad has also sought to isolate and control the Kurdistan Region via a trade embargo at the border with Turkey. This is also important because many countries are trying to use pipelines and other means to get around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz . Saudi Arabia has similar challenges. As Baghdad seeks to pressure  Erbil , the dispute continues, which will likely harm the economy in Baghdad and have w...

Mark Hertling, former commander of US troops in Iraq in 2007 shares his personal thoughts on why the Kurds cannot solve the Iran Problem FOR MORE THAN FIFTY YEARS, when American presidents have wanted to  put pressure  on leader in Iraq or Iran, the same idea has consistently popped up: Use the Kurds. Now, as the Trump administration seeks “ unconditional surrender ” from the Iranian regime, the question of the Kurds has come up again. Last week, CNN  reported  that the CIA is arming Kurdish rebels “with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran.” The logic behind the suggestion is easy to understand. The Kurds are fierce fighters. They are among the more pro-Western and pro-American groups in the region. They were partners and helped stabilize parts of Iraq during the U.S. invasion. They were decisive in helping defeat ISIS when the Iraqi state nearly collapsed in 2014 and in destroying ISIS in Syria. For many Americans, they represent the kind of ally we wish...

  The Kurds are an ethnic group of 50-70 million people living mostly in Turkiye, Iraq, Iran and Syria. They speak a language related to Farsi (Persian) and are mostly Sunni Muslims. International treaties in the 1920s divided Kurdish lands between newly-made countries, leaving the Kurds without a state of their own. Kurdish groups have fought for autonomy or independence in all 4 countries over the past century. Turkiye: Kurds make up about 20% of the population; a Kurdish armed group (PKK) has fought the state since 1984 in a conflict killing over 40,000 people. Iraq: Kurds in the north run a semi-autonomous region with their own government but are in tensions with the government of Iraq, especially over oil profits. Syria: during the civil war, Kurdish fighters partnered with the US against the Islamic State from 2014, controlling much of the northeast until 2026. Iran: Kurds make up about 10% of the population and face repression; Kurdish areas were a focal point of mass unrest...