Kurdish Policy Analysis

Iraq is getting caught in the crossfire of the Iran war as the only country facing strikes from both sides, and that threatens to drag the nation that has so far avoided two years of regional turmoil into a full-blown crisis. As the war nears two full weeks, Iraq's situation is growing more desperate. Disruptions to Gulf shipping and strikes on oil fields and infrastructure have all but halted exports, jeopardizing a state that relies on such trade for the bulk of its revenue. If the shutdown continues, Baghdad could be unable to meet its oversized public‑sector payroll as soon as next month, risking widespread unrest, two Iraqi Kurdish officials said. The federal government has appealed to northern Kurdish leaders to resume exports via a pipeline to Turkey, but talks remain deadlocked over longstanding domestic issues. The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive political matters. In the meantime, a parallel conflict to the wider war ...

  How the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Could Benefit the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in Oil Markets The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints in the world. Roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes through this narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the wider global market. Any disruption or closure would immediately shake global energy markets. While such a scenario would create severe global economic risks, it could also open unexpected opportunities for certain producers—particularly the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Below are several ways a Hormuz disruption could potentially benefit the KRI’s oil sector. 1. Higher Global Oil Prices If the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, exports from major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia , Kuwait , Qatar , and United Arab Emirates could be severely reduced. Markets would likely respond with a dramatic increase in oil prices. For the KRI, which exports c...