Kurdish Policy Analysis

       The war with Iran has begun to feel grim and open-ended. After the initial shock of the US-Israeli strikes and the extraordinary intelligence successes of the first days, the conflict has settled into something that looks increasingly like a war of attrition—missile exchanges, pressure around the Strait of Hormuz , and a sense that the decisive moment of freedom that so many hoped for might not come.  In that atmosphere, one can  believe the war may be accelerating the very outcome that many observers—including us—have begun to doubt: the collapse of the Iranian regime. In our view, the military pressure now being applied to the Islamic Republic is weakening the regime’s most important pillar: its ability to repress its own population. Accordingly, there are already signs of strain inside the regime’s security structure. Iran’s repression forces have suffered significant losses, command structures are fragmenting, and tensions within the ruling syste...