Kurdish Policy Analysis

       ERBIL/SULAYMANIYAH, March 2026 — Kurdish guerrilla groups based in Iraq’s autonomous region told politico they are prepared to move against Iran if the United States provides decisive military backing, positioning themselves as a potential ground force in an increasingly volatile regional war. The fighters — drawn from long-established Iranian Kurdish opposition movements — are part of a broader effort to capitalize on instability inside Iran, where protests and military pressure have weakened central authority in some regions. Their ambitions align with discussions in Washington about leveraging ethnic minority groups to destabilize Tehran from within. U.S. officials have explored the possibility of supporting Kurdish factions with intelligence, weapons, and potentially air cover, though no final decision has been announced . Waiting for American backing Leaders of Iranian Kurdish factions say any cross-border offensive would depend heavily on U.S. supp...

       WASHINGTON/Erbil, March 23 —By Pshtiwan Faraj  A 48-hour ultimatum issued by Donald Trump to Iran over access to the Strait of Hormuz has expired, heightening fears of potential military escalation in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. The ultimatum, delivered over the weekend, demanded that Tehran ensure the reopening and security of maritime traffic through the narrow waterway, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows. The deadline lapsed on Monday, with no immediate public confirmation of compliance from Iranian authorities. U.S. officials have not formally announced next steps, but analysts say Washington is likely weighing a range of options, including limited military strikes aimed at deterring further disruption without triggering a broader conflict. “The expiration of the deadline places the situation in a highly volatile phase,” said a regional security analyst. “Even a calibrated response could provoke retaliation ...

 From Gulf states to global media, the quiet shifts behind the scenes may reveal more about the Iran war’s outcome than the war itself. March 22, 2026 — By Pshtiwan Faraj  A growing number of geopolitical signals suggest momentum in the conflict between the United States and Iran may be shifting, according to historian and military analyst Victor Davis Hanson , who argues that the behavior of regional and global actors offers a clearer picture than official statements. Speaking in a recent commentary, Hanson said that despite competing narratives surrounding the war, the actions of governments, media outlets and military forces indicate a potential advantage for Washington — though independent verification of battlefield conditions remains limited. Shifting Positions Among Allies and Partners European governments, traditionally cautious in military engagements, are showing signs of increased alignment with the United States, Hanson said. While early responses were muted, ...

       Three scenarios that could reshape the Middle East and global economy overnight March 22, 2026 — By Pshtiwan Faraj   The war between the United States, Israel and Iran is entering what analysts describe as its most dangerous phase yet, with both sides escalating threats against energy infrastructure, shipping routes and regional targets — raising the prospect that the conflict could end abruptly, but not cleanly. The conflict , now in its fourth week, has already killed more than 2,000 people and disrupted global oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s crude supply. A War Reaching Its Breaking Point U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that failure to comply would result in the destruction of Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran has responded with its own escalation, threatening to fully close the waterway and...

  At least 112 people have been killed so far in United States-Israel attacks on Iran’s   Kurdistan province, according to a local official quoted by state media, a dark twist as Washington encourages Iranian Kurdish forces across the border in Iraq to launch a ground operation into Iran,   AzerNEWS   reports, citing Al Jazeera. The head of the Kurdistan Provincial Emergency Department on Friday said at least 969 people were injured in the attacks. Twenty-seven people are currently hospitalised in standard wards, while five are in intensive care units, the official, who remained unnamed, added. Kurds are an Indigenous ethnic minority of the Mesopotamian region, spread mainly across southeastern Turkiye, northeastern Syria, the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, northwestern Iran and southwestern Armenia, sharing a distinct language and culture but lacking a state of their own. They are also estimated to make up nearly 10 percent of Iran’s populatio...

  Italy is pulling its troops out of Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdistan region, which has become a flashpoint of the war in the Middle East. Italy has been gradually withdrawing its forces from Erbil’s Camp Singara since the start of the war, according to an Italian official. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni previously said Italy has no intention of joining the war. Of the over 300 troops stationed there before the war, around 100 returned to Italy and around 70 are in Jordan, the official said. There are still around 140 Italian troops in Erbil. Pulling out the remaining Italian troops became more urgent after a drone strike hit Camp Singara in the early hours of Thursday. None of the troops were injured in that attack. Italy has also withdrawn smaller military units from Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, the official said.

Iraq is getting caught in the crossfire of the Iran war as the only country facing strikes from both sides, and that threatens to drag the nation that has so far avoided two years of regional turmoil into a full-blown crisis. As the war nears two full weeks, Iraq's situation is growing more desperate. Disruptions to Gulf shipping and strikes on oil fields and infrastructure have all but halted exports, jeopardizing a state that relies on such trade for the bulk of its revenue. If the shutdown continues, Baghdad could be unable to meet its oversized public‑sector payroll as soon as next month, risking widespread unrest, two Iraqi Kurdish officials said. The federal government has appealed to northern Kurdish leaders to resume exports via a pipeline to Turkey, but talks remain deadlocked over longstanding domestic issues. The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive political matters. In the meantime, a parallel conflict to the wider war ...

  Iraq Faces Growing Crisis Amid Escalating Iran War Conflict Iraq is increasingly becoming a battleground in the ongoing Iran war, facing strikes from both Iranian and U.S. forces that threaten to spiral the nation into deeper chaos. As the conflict approaches its two-week mark, Iraq’s situation worsens daily, characterized by disruptions to Gulf shipping and numerous attacks on its oil fields and essential infrastructure. This has severely hampered the country’s oil exports, which are vital for Baghdad’s economy—over 90% of government revenue relies on oil trade. Kurdish officials have indicated that should the shutdown of oil exports persist, the Iraqi government could find itself unable to meet its extensive public-sector payroll by next month, raising the specter of widespread unrest. In an effort to mitigate this, the federal government has sought to negotiate with northern Kurdish leaders to resume exports through a pipeline to Turkey. However, these discussions remain stall...