Kurdish Policy Analysis

  Iraq Faces Growing Crisis Amid Escalating Iran War Conflict Iraq is increasingly becoming a battleground in the ongoing Iran war, facing strikes from both Iranian and U.S. forces that threaten to spiral the nation into deeper chaos. As the conflict approaches its two-week mark, Iraq’s situation worsens daily, characterized by disruptions to Gulf shipping and numerous attacks on its oil fields and essential infrastructure. This has severely hampered the country’s oil exports, which are vital for Baghdad’s economy—over 90% of government revenue relies on oil trade. Kurdish officials have indicated that should the shutdown of oil exports persist, the Iraqi government could find itself unable to meet its extensive public-sector payroll by next month, raising the specter of widespread unrest. In an effort to mitigate this, the federal government has sought to negotiate with northern Kurdish leaders to resume exports through a pipeline to Turkey. However, these discussions remain stall...

  How the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Could Benefit the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in Oil Markets The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints in the world. Roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes through this narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the wider global market. Any disruption or closure would immediately shake global energy markets. While such a scenario would create severe global economic risks, it could also open unexpected opportunities for certain producers—particularly the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Below are several ways a Hormuz disruption could potentially benefit the KRI’s oil sector. 1. Higher Global Oil Prices If the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, exports from major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia , Kuwait , Qatar , and United Arab Emirates could be severely reduced. Markets would likely respond with a dramatic increase in oil prices. For the KRI, which exports c...