Iraq on the Brink: Iran-Backed Militias Push Baghdad Toward Dangerous Isolation

Escalating attacks, U.S. air strikes, and growing Gulf anger expose Iraq’s struggle to control powerful armed factions

Sulaimanyah, Iraq March 30 Kurdish Policy Analysis— Iraq risks sliding into regional isolation unless it reins in powerful Iran-backed militias operating on its soil, officials and analysts warn, as the country becomes an increasingly active battleground in the intensifying confrontation between the United States and Iran.

Since the outbreak of war last month, armed factions aligned with Tehran have significantly escalated operations across Iraq, targeting bases hosting U.S. forces, striking hotels in Baghdad they allege house American personnel, and launching attacks into the northern Kurdistan region. These militias have also widened the scope of operations beyond Iraq’s borders, reportedly targeting U.S.-linked infrastructure and regional states including Jordan and Gulf countries.

The surge in militia activity has drawn swift retaliation. Joint U.S.-Israeli air strikes have hit facilities associated with the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), the umbrella network of mostly Shiite paramilitary groups formally integrated into Iraq’s security apparatus but widely seen as aligned with Iran. One such strike earlier this week killed at least 15 fighters, marking a significant escalation against what is considered one of Tehran’s most entrenched regional proxies.

Regional powers are now openly warning Baghdad. Several Arab states — including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan — have urged Iraq to take “necessary measures” to halt attacks originating from its territory, stressing the need to preserve regional stability and prevent further escalation.

The pressure is not limited to Iraq’s Arab neighbours. Donald Trump has signaled that Washington is prepared to intensify its campaign against Tehran’s proxy networks, potentially expanding targeted military operations and imposing sanctions on political and financial actors linked to militia groups within Iraq.

Iraq’s Foreign Ministry has sought to contain the fallout, reiterating that it rejects attacks launched from its territory and emphasizing that the security of neighbouring countries is integral to Iraq’s own national defence strategy. Yet officials privately acknowledge the challenge is far more complex.

“I fear this could turn into a new phase of isolation for Iraq,” one Iraqi politician said, warning that Baghdad’s efforts to deepen economic and political integration with regional partners could unravel if militia activity continues unchecked.

A state within a state

At the heart of the crisis lies the entrenched power of the PMF. Originally formed in 2014 to help combat ISIS, the network has since evolved into a deeply embedded political and military force with influence across Iraq’s state institutions.

Analysts say this dual role — both as an official security entity and a collection of semi-autonomous armed groups — has severely constrained the government’s ability to assert full sovereignty.

Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, described Iraq as a “fragile and fragmented state” increasingly perceived by regional actors as a liability rather than a partner.

“The government lacks the power to act decisively against these groups,” he said, noting that even where political will exists, institutional fragmentation prevents meaningful enforcement.

This paralysis has left Iraq exposed — not only to internal instability but also to external pressure from both Washington and Tehran.

Kurdistan anger grows

Tensions are particularly acute in the Kurdistan region, where repeated attacks have killed civilians and members of the Peshmerga forces. Kurdish officials have sharply criticized Baghdad’s response, accusing it of failing to hold perpetrators accountable.

“The mask is coming off. The PMF is the state,” a senior Kurdish official said, alleging that hundreds of rockets and drones have been launched at the region in recent weeks without a single arrest or prosecution.

The official further claimed that militia groups exert influence over key state institutions, including banks, parliament and the judiciary, allowing them to operate with near-total impunity.

Such accusations underscore a broader perception among Iraq’s regional partners: that the central government lacks effective control over armed actors within its borders.

Sudani under pressure

The crisis presents a formidable challenge for Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who is already navigating a delicate political transition and government formation process.

Balancing relations between the United States and Iran has long been a defining feature of Iraqi leadership. However, the current conflict is testing that balance to its limits.

Officials say any attempt to curb militia activity risks triggering internal confrontation, given the groups’ deep political ties and military capabilities.

“Taking action requires courage, unity and careful implementation,” one Iraqi politician said. “You must apply enough pressure to stop these groups without pushing the country into internal conflict.”

Caught in the crossfire

Despite mounting criticism, some officials in Baghdad are urging patience from regional partners, emphasizing that Iraq is uniquely vulnerable as a battlefield for competing powers.

“We are the only country in the region being hit by both sides,” one official said, appealing to Gulf states to maintain engagement with Iraq despite the ongoing crisis.

The warning is clear: isolation would not only weaken Iraq economically and politically but could further destabilize an already volatile region.

As the U.S.-Iran confrontation intensifies, Iraq’s ability — or failure — to assert control over Iran-backed militias may determine whether it remains a bridge between rival powers or becomes the epicenter of a widening regional conflict.

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