Two controversial U.S. policy reports are raising alarm in Washington—portraying Turkey not as a democratic ally, but as a strategic hub for Islamist movements, triggering calls for pressure from a potential Trump administration.
ERBIL / Kurdish Policy Analysis — As the war against Iran reshapes alliances across the Middle East, a pair of controversial reports from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies is igniting debate in Washington: should Turkey, a long-standing NATO ally, be the next target of U.S. pressure?
The reports, published on April 1, argue that Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has drifted far from its secular democratic roots—evolving instead into what analysts describe as an “Islamist geopolitical hub” with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and affiliated networks.
From Secular Republic to Islamist Power Center?
One of the reports claims that modern Turkey has undergone a profound ideological transformation since Erdoğan came to power in 2003. It argues that Ankara has gradually dismantled the secular foundations laid by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and replaced them with a system aligned with political Islam. According to the analysis, Turkey has:
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Hosted exiled leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood
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Supported Islamist movements across the Middle East
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Maintained ties with groups such as Hamas
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Promoted ideological networks rooted in the Milli Görüş movement
The report further alleges that Turkey’s policies extend beyond political support, claiming financial and logistical backing for Islamist actors, including some linked to jihadist organizations.
These claims remain highly contested and are rejected by Ankara, which maintains that it is combating terrorism and acting as a stabilizing regional power.
Why Target Turkey First?
The second report makes a more direct policy argument: if Donald Trump returns to power, Turkey—not Russia, not China—should be the first NATO ally subjected to pressure. The reasoning is strategic:
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Turkey’s geographic position makes it a bridge between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia
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Its influence extends into conflict zones including Syria, Gaza, and Libya
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Its relationships with Islamist groups could reshape post-war regional order
The report warns that failing to confront Turkey could allow it to fill the vacuum left by a weakened Iran, positioning itself as the dominant ideological and political force in the Muslim world.
Turkey’s Expanding Regional Footprint
FDD-linked analysis points to recent developments reinforcing these concerns, including:
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Meetings between Turkish intelligence officials and Hamas leaders in Istanbul
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Ankara’s attempts to influence post-war political arrangements in Gaza
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Its complex balancing act in the ongoing Iran conflict
At the same time, Turkey has avoided direct confrontation with Iran, likely due to economic and political risks.
Understanding the Think Tank Behind the Reports
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies is a Washington-based policy institute focused on national security and counterterrorism.
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It operates projects like Long War Journal, tracking jihadist networks globally
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It has a dedicated Turkey program analyzing Ankara’s policies
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It is widely seen as hawkish on Iran and Islamist movements
However, the organization is also controversial. Critics—including academics and journalists—have accused it of:
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Promoting alarmist or ideological narratives
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Aligning with hardline U.S. foreign policy positions
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Participating in pressure campaigns against countries like Iran, Qatar, and Turkey
This raises a critical question: are these reports objective intelligence analysis—or part of a broader geopolitical lobbying effort?
Why Now? Timing and the Iran War
The timing of these reports is not accidental.
As U.S. and Israeli operations weaken Iran’s regional network, a power vacuum is emerging across the Middle East. Analysts warn that:
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Turkey could position itself as the new Sunni axis leader
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It could expand influence via political Islam rather than direct military force
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Its NATO membership complicates any Western response
In this context, framing Turkey as a “problem ally” may serve to prepare public and political opinion for future confrontation or pressure.
Is Turkey Really “Next”?
Despite the alarmist tone of the reports, reality is more complex. Turkey remains:
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A NATO member with strategic military assets
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A key mediator in regional conflicts
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A country balancing relations with the West, Russia, and the Muslim world
While concerns about democratic backsliding and foreign policy activism are widely shared in Western policy circles, labeling Turkey as a hub of jihadism is a far more contentious claim.
Conclusion: Narrative or Warning?
The emerging narrative from Washington think tanks suggests a dramatic shift: From “Turkey the ally” → to “Turkey the strategic challenge.” Whether this reflects reality—or an attempt to shape it—may determine the next phase of Middle East geopolitics after Iran.
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