Kurdish Policy Analysis / SULAIMANI, IRAQ -- Realist scholar John Mearsheimer argues a US attempt to choke Iran’s oil exports could destabilize markets, strengthen adversaries, and expose limits of American coercive power.
John Mearsheimer warns that a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz targeting Iran could backfire economically and strategically, undermining global oil markets and exposing limits of US leverage.
— A proposed US effort to block Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to fail and could instead inflict broader damage on the global economy, according to prominent realist scholar John Mearsheimer.
Speaking on a podcast hosted by Syria expert Joshua Landis and commentator Tom Switzer, Mearsheimer argued that the strategic assumptions behind the policy are flawed.
The proposal, attributed to President Donald Trump, would effectively block Iran’s oil exports from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows.
Proponents of the policy argue that cutting off oil revenues would place overwhelming economic pressure on Iran, forcing it to concede to US and allied demands.
However, Mearsheimer contends that such a move misunderstands both market dynamics and geopolitical realities. Iranian oil, he argues, plays a stabilizing role in global supply, and removing it abruptly could drive up prices, amplifying economic strain worldwide—including in the United States and allied economies.
He noted that Washington has historically tolerated a degree of Iranian oil exports precisely to avoid destabilizing global markets, suggesting that a full blockade would mark a sharp and risky departure from past policy.
Analysts broadly agree that enforcing a comprehensive blockade in the Gulf would be operationally complex and politically escalatory, potentially drawing in multiple regional and global actors with competing interests in maintaining open shipping lanes.
The Strait of Hormuz carries a significant share of the world’s oil supply, meaning any disruption could trigger immediate price volatility and supply chain shocks.
Mearsheimer also warned that coercive strategies based on economic strangulation often produce unintended consequences, including hardening the resolve of targeted states and encouraging alternative trade networks that bypass US control.
The discussion reflects a wider debate within policy and academic circles over the effectiveness of economic warfare versus diplomacy in managing conflicts with Iran.
As tensions in the Gulf continue to rise, the question is no longer just whether a blockade could be implemented—but whether it would achieve its intended strategic objectives without triggering broader systemic risks.
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