Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani in April 2024.
Claims of state control over Iran-linked factions face scrutiny as security dynamics on the ground tell a different story. An analysis of claims that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani overstated control over Iran-backed militias, highlighting ongoing gaps between official policy and security realities.
SULAYMANIYAH, Kurdish Policy Analysis — Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani faces renewed scrutiny over whether Baghdad truly controls the powerful network of Iran-linked militias operating across the country—an issue that continues to shape relations with United States policymakers and regional actors.
A recent critique by Michael Rubin, published by the Middle East Forum, argues that Sudani has presented an overly optimistic picture of state authority—particularly in discussions with Donald Trump—regarding Iraq’s ability to manage armed factions tied to Iran.
At the center of the debate is the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella structure formally integrated into Iraq’s security apparatus but widely seen as containing factions with independent command structures and external loyalties. While Baghdad officially maintains that these forces operate under state authority, analysts point to continued incidents suggesting otherwise.
Despite repeated government assurances, Iran-aligned groups have maintained operational capacity, including periodic attacks on U.S. interests and pressure on Kurdish regions. These developments highlight a persistent gap between formal policy and the fragmented realities of Iraq’s security landscape.
For Sudani, the challenge is structural as much as political. The PMF is not only a military force but also a deeply embedded political and economic actor. Efforts to constrain it risk destabilizing governing coalitions, while failure to act undermines Iraq’s sovereignty narrative and credibility abroad.
The issue carries particular weight in Washington, where skepticism remains high over Baghdad’s willingness—or ability—to curb militia activity. For U.S. policymakers, the question is no longer whether militias exist within the state, but whether the state can function independently of them.
At the same time, Iraqi leadership continues to emphasize diplomatic stability and the protection of foreign missions, signaling an awareness of the risks of escalation. Yet as long as militia autonomy persists, Iraq’s strategic positioning will remain constrained by forces operating both within and beyond state control.
Risk Analysis
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U.S.–Iraq tensions: Continued militia attacks could trigger retaliatory escalation
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Kurdistan vulnerability: Kurdish regions remain exposed to pressure from non-state actors
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Internal instability: Any attempt to dismantle PMF influence risks political fragmentation
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Regional spillover: Iran–U.S. rivalry continues to play out inside Iraq
The Middle East Forum piece by Michael Rubin argues that Mohammed Shia al-Sudani misled Donald Trump over the role and control of Iran-backed militias—portraying them as manageable state-aligned forces while, in reality, they operate with significant autonomy and influence.
The article frames these militias—many under the Popular Mobilization Forces—as deeply embedded in Iraq’s political and economic system, with loyalties that often extend beyond Baghdad.
This critique aligns with broader concerns: despite official statements about enforcing state authority, attacks by Iran-linked factions on U.S. and Kurdish targets continue, highlighting the limits of government control.
At the same time, Iraqi leadership—including Sudani—publicly insists on protecting diplomatic missions and maintaining stability, suggesting a gap between policy rhetoric and on-the-ground realities.
#Iraq #Kurdistan #Geopolitics #Iran #US
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