Amid war spillover and militia attacks, Baghdad risks deeper instability in conflict between Tehran’s proxies and Washington
BAGHDAD/ERBIL, April 9 — Iraq is confronting a growing strategic dilemma as Iran‑backed militias escalate attacks across the country, exposing deep political fractures in Baghdad and raising pressure from Washington for decisive action, analysts say.
Groups aligned with Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), many of them backed by Iran and designated as terrorist organizations by the United States, have launched repeated drone, missile and rocket attacks on Iraqi and foreign targets in recent weeks, including U.S. interests, Kurdish areas and national security facilities.
The surge in militia operations — intertwined with Tehran’s broader regional campaign — has compounded domestic instability and strained Baghdad’s ability to assert control, according to a policy analysis by The Washington Institute.
On March 28, a drone attack attributed to Iran‑linked factions struck the home of the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Dohuk, part of hundreds of strikes tied to the ongoing regional conflict. Militias also have targeted Iraqi military intelligence headquarters and foreign diplomatic residences in Baghdad.
Although Baghdad has publicly condemned violence on its soil, the government — still without a fully formed cabinet more than five months after elections — has taken few obvious steps to curb militia power. Critics say Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al‑Sudani’s caretaker administration shows notable deference to these groups, some of which also hold seats in parliament.
Militias such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al‑Haqq, central to the PMF, have issued ultimatums demanding U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq, and have repeatedly struck at U.S. installations, prompting U.S. air strikes in response.
The United States has sought to push Baghdad to rein in the militias, conducting a sustained air campaign against PMF assets and urging Iraqi authorities to distance state structures from armed proxies. However, the dynamics of militia influence — deeply embedded in Iraqi political and economic life — complicate Washington’s leverage.
Analysts warn that failing to address the militias’ autonomy could deepen Iraq’s drift toward a state in which armed factions wield more power than government institutions, mirroring patterns seen in neighboring Lebanon. The sustained violence also threatens to pull Iraq further into regional conflicts between Tehran and Washington’s allies.
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