With militias entrenched and U.S.–Iran tensions rising, Baghdad stands at the edge of escalation
By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, SULAIMANI, Kurdish Policy Analysis, April 21-- A new government is expected to emerge in Baghdad in the coming weeks. From its first day, it will face a defining choice: pursue bold structural reform—including curbing the power of non-state armed actors—or risk sliding into a dangerous escalation between the United States and entrenched militia networks operating across Iraq.
Iraq today occupies an unstable middle ground in the ongoing U.S.–Iran rivalry. It is neither a direct combatant nor a neutral bystander, but a contested arena where regional and international competition unfolds. The country’s dependence on U.S. security support, combined with Iran’s deep-rooted political, economic, and paramilitary influence, has created a persistent and volatile equilibrium. Managing this dual dependency will be one of the new government’s most urgent and complex challenges.
Recent developments underscore the scale of the threat. Between March and early April 2026, U.S. facilities in Iraq were subjected to hundreds of drone and missile attacks, many attributed to factions operating under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq.” These strikes damaged military and diplomatic infrastructure and demonstrated the growing operational capacity of Iran-aligned armed groups.
The Kurdistan Region has also become a central target. Nearly 700 air and drone strikes were recorded over the same period, with more than half attributed to Iran-linked factions, including elements within the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi). Additional attacks originated from Iranian territory. These operations inflicted serious damage on energy infrastructure, Peshmerga positions, and civilian areas, resulting in casualties among civilians, security forces, and members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.
Structurally, the Kurdistan Region remains highly vulnerable. Lacking sovereign air defense capabilities and constrained by limited financial resources, it relies largely on localized U.S. protection systems concentrated around Erbil. Beyond this narrow coverage, critical infrastructure remains exposed. For Iran and its allies, the region represents both a strategically convenient and symbolically significant target—used to signal deterrence, pressure Baghdad and Erbil, and restrict U.S. operational space.
At the federal level, the response has been notably limited. Iraqi authorities and key political actors have largely avoided decisive condemnation or preventive action. This inaction reflects a deeper structural reality: many armed groups operate within the state framework while maintaining independent command structures and external loyalties. Embedded across political, legislative, and security institutions, these actors contribute to a hybrid system in which sovereignty is fragmented and governance is negotiated rather than enforced.
This fragmentation has far-reaching consequences. It undermines Baghdad’s authority, weakens institutional legitimacy, and complicates relations with both the Kurdistan Region and international partners. The persistence of parallel security structures erodes confidence in the state’s ability to enforce the rule of law, implement agreements, or protect national interests—perpetuating cycles of instability.
For the Kurdistan Region, the consequences are immediate and severe. Repeated attacks have disrupted daily life, damaged investor confidence, and constrained economic growth. Energy infrastructure—critical to regional revenues—has been repeatedly targeted, delaying exports and discouraging foreign investment. These pressures are compounded by internal political divisions, further weakening governance capacity.
At the national level, the risks are even greater. Continued militia activity outside state control increases the likelihood that Iraq will become a sustained arena for proxy conflict. It also strains relations with the United States, particularly in the realm of security cooperation. Reduced coordination or retaliatory measures could deepen Iraq’s existing vulnerabilities rather than resolve them.
More concerning is the growing risk of direct confrontation between U.S. forces and militia groups operating on Iraqi soil. While U.S. responses have so far remained measured, escalation scenarios remain plausible—potentially involving targeted strikes against militia leadership, infrastructure, and supply networks. Given the blurred boundaries between state and non-state actors, such actions could also affect official security institutions, alongside increased economic and financial pressure from Washington.
The political outlook further complicates the situation. The next government is likely to emerge from the same Shiite Coordination Framework that dominates current politics, including factions with close ties to Iran and the Hashd al-Shaabi. This continuity raises questions about the government’s capacity to enact meaningful reform or assert control over armed actors. As a result, the state may continue to bear the costs—political, economic, and security—without possessing the authority to address the root causes.
Regionally, the implications are equally serious. Cross-border drone operations conducted by Iraqi-based factions against neighboring countries—including Gulf states, Jordan, and Syria—have extended Iraq’s internal divisions beyond its borders. This undermines Baghdad’s credibility and risks alienating key regional partners. Without clear action to prevent the use of Iraqi territory for external operations, Iraq’s diplomatic position will continue to erode.
Looking ahead, Iraq faces a convergence of threats: escalating conflict, institutional weakening, and economic stagnation. Addressing these challenges requires a long-term, strategic approach. Reforming command and control structures within the security sector is essential but will be politically sensitive and difficult, given the entrenched power of non-state actors and their external connections.
A realistic path forward lies in a gradual, dual-track strategy: integrating or containing non-state armed groups through political mechanisms while progressively restoring the state’s monopoly over the use of force. International partners, despite growing frustration, remain a critical source of leverage through conditional engagement and targeted support.
Without meaningful reform, Iraq risks entering a phase of sustained instability—where governance is weakened, conflict becomes normalized, and the state’s sovereignty continues to erode under competing internal and external pressures.
#Iraq #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #USIran #Kurdistan #Security #Breaking
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