Public military backlash exposes a divided command structure—raising fears no deal with Tehran can hold
Kurdish Policy Analysis / ERBIL, Iraq — Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has publicly accused a senior state negotiator of betrayal following the collapse of high-stakes talks in Islamabad, exposing deep internal fractures that analysts say may make any future agreement with Tehran impossible to enforce.
Hours after negotiations with the United States broke down, IRGC commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahidi delivered a stark rebuke of parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation.
“The supreme leader isn’t even buried yet, and yet Ghalibaf is already shaking hands with those who killed him,” Vahidi said in remarks broadcast publicly, in what appeared to be a direct reference to Ghalibaf’s engagement with U.S. Vice President JD Vance.
The unusually blunt criticism signaled more than a personal dispute. It underscored a widening divide between Iran’s civilian leadership and the military institution that controls key elements of its strategic power.
Ghalibaf, who spent nearly a full day in talks with Vance and presented a proposed 10-point framework, later said Iran had shown “goodwill but no trust.” Yet his authority to negotiate appears to have been sharply constrained from the outset.
Prior to the talks, Vahidi had already moved to limit the delegation’s scope, according to regional security reports. A close ally, Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr, was inserted into the team, while discussions on Iran’s missile program were explicitly ruled out. Parallel warnings from the IRGC’s aerospace command reinforced that such capabilities were non-negotiable.
The result was a delegation operating under what analysts describe as a “military veto”—a structure in which civilian negotiators engage diplomatically but lack the authority to make binding commitments on core security issues.
That dynamic appears to have been decisive in the talks’ failure.
U.S. officials said Washington could not secure a clear commitment from Tehran to forgo pursuing a nuclear weapon. However, multiple analysts note that such assurances may have been impossible to deliver given Iran’s internal power distribution.
The IRGC controls key components of Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, as well as strategic waterways including the Strait of Hormuz. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February strikes that disrupted central command, the Guard activated a decentralized system known as the “Mosaic Doctrine.”
Under this framework, authority is distributed across 31 provincial commands, each capable of operating semi-independently. While designed to ensure regime survival under attack, the system has also fragmented decision-making.
“The structure that kept the system intact after decapitation may now prevent it from negotiating coherently,” one regional analyst said.
Tensions between Iran’s civilian government and the IRGC had already surfaced earlier this month. On April 4, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that independent military escalation risked pushing the country toward “a huge catastrophe.”
The IRGC responded by embedding representatives within the negotiating process as “consultants,” while simultaneously issuing external warnings that any military presence near Hormuz would face a “decisive and forceful response.”
The dual posture—participating in talks while retaining the power to override them—has left negotiators without clear authority and foreign counterparts uncertain about who ultimately speaks for Iran.
Diplomats say the breakdown in Islamabad highlights a deeper structural problem: the individuals at the negotiating table may not control the assets or decisions required to uphold an agreement.
With the military leadership publicly undermining its own envoy, the prospect of a unified Iranian position appears increasingly remote.
Analysts warn that without a single chain of command capable of delivering and enforcing commitments, even renewed negotiations could struggle to produce lasting results.
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