Kurdish Policy
Analysis / SULAIMANI —April 18 — Tehran warns it will
continue to block strait as long as Trump blockades Iran-linked shipping; US
president says blockade ‘in full force’ until regime reaches a deal, including
on its nuclear program. Tehran fires warning shots at shipping as Trump vows pressure until nuclear deal, shaking global energy markets
Iran swiftly reversed course on reopening the Strait of Hormuz on
Saturday, reimposing restrictions on the critical waterway after the US said it
would not end its blockade of Iran-linked shipping.
Iran’s joint military command said that “control of the Strait of
Hormuz has returned to its previous state … under strict management and control
of the armed forces.”
It warned that it would continue to block transit through the
strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
Vessels and a boat at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman,
April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
Iran swiftly reversed course on reopening the Strait of Hormuz on
Saturday, reimposing restrictions on the critical waterway after the US said it
would not end its blockade of Iran-linked shipping.
Iran’s joint military command said that “control of the Strait of
Hormuz has returned to its previous state … under strict management and control
of the armed forces.”
It warned that it would continue to block transit through the
strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
Promoted: Jerusalem Institute of JusticeKeep Watching
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said it
had received a report of a tanker being fired upon by what it said were “two
gunboats linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” 20 nautical miles
northeast of Oman.
The captain of the tanker said the two gunboats opened fire without
issuing a radio challenge, UKMTO said in its advisory note, adding that the
vessel and its crew were reported safe.
Hours earlier, speaking to reporters, US President Donald Trump had
cited “some pretty good news” about Iran, declining to elaborate. But he also
said fighting might resume without a peace deal by Wednesday, when a two-week
ceasefire expires. On Friday evening, he had posted on Truth Social that “Iran has agreed to
never close the Strait of Hormuz again.”
Iran’s announcement came after Trump said Friday that even though
Tehran announced the strait’s reopening, the American blockade “will remain in
full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear
program.
The ongoing conflict over the strait has threatened to deepen the
energy crisis roiling the global economy after oil prices began to fall again
on Friday, on hopes that the US and Iran were drawing closer to an agreement.
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait and
further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher
once again.
Earlier Saturday, a convoy of oil tankers was observed crossing the
Strait of Hormuz, the first major movement of ships in the crucial waterway
since the US and Israel launched their war on the Iranian regime seven weeks
ago.
The convoy was seen departing the Gulf and transiting the waterway,
vessel-tracking data shows.
The group comprised four liquefied petroleum gas carriers and
several oil product and chemical tankers, with more tankers following from the
Gulf, according to MarineTraffic data.
Control over the strait has proven to be one of Iran’s main points
of leverage and prompted the United States to deploy forces and initiate a
blockade on Iranian ports as part of an effort to force Iran to accept a
Pakistan-brokered ceasefire to end almost seven weeks of war that has raged
between Israel, the US and Iran.
Iran said earlier this week that it fully reopened the Strait of
Hormuz to commercial vessels after a 10-day truce was announced between Israel
and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.
An end to Israel’s war conflict with Hezbollah — reignited when the
Lebanon-based terror group resumed rocket and drone attacks on Israel — was a
key demand of Iranian negotiators, who previously accused Israel of breaking
the ceasefire with strikes on Lebanon. Israel had said that the Iran truce did
not cover Lebanon.
But after Trump said the blockade would continue, top Iranian
officials said his announcement violated last week’s ceasefire agreement
between Iran and the US and warned the strait would not stay open if the US
blockade remained in effect.
A data firm, Kpler, said movement through the strait remained
confined to corridors requiring Iran’s approval.
US forces have sent 21 ships back to Iran since the blockade began
on Monday, US Central Command said on X.
Meanwhile, Trump on Saturday flatly rejected the idea of Iran
imposing restrictions or tolls on the strait when asked by a reporter aboard
Air Force One.
“Nope. No way. No. Nope,” Trump said. He said there can’t be tolls
along with restrictions. “No, they’re not going to be tolls.”
Despite the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani officials
say the United States and Iran are still moving closer to a deal ahead of the
April 22 ceasefire deadline.
Even though mediators were optimistic, it was unclear to what
extent Hezbollah would abide by a truce that it did not play a role in
negotiating, and which would leave Israeli troops deployed in parts of southern
Lebanon.
Trump said in another post that Israel is “prohibited” by the US
from further strikes on Lebanon and that “enough is enough” in the
Israel-Hezbollah war.
The US State Department said the prohibition applies only to
offensive attacks and not to actions taken by Israel in self-defense.
Series of latest events
-
Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz after brief reopening
-
Tehran links closure directly to ongoing U.S. naval blockade
-
Tanker reportedly fired upon by Iranian-linked gunboats
-
Limited tanker convoy briefly transited before restrictions resumed
-
Ceasefire deadline approaches amid fragile diplomacy
CONTEXT
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to global markets and carries around 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Control over the strait has become a central lever in the confrontation:
-
Iran: Uses access restrictions to exert global economic pressure
-
U.S.: Uses naval blockade to constrain Iran’s economy and exports
-
Global markets: React sharply to any disruption signals
Even temporary closures can trigger:
-
Oil price spikes
-
Shipping reroutes
-
Increased insurance and transport costs
The latest developments come as Pakistan-led mediation efforts continue ahead of a looming ceasefire deadline.
ANALYSIS
This is no longer just a military standoff — it’s a high-stakes economic chokehold strategy.
1. Direct Linkage: Blockade vs. Strait
Iran has made its position explicit:
No open strait while U.S. blockade remains.
This transforms the crisis into a binary pressure contest:
-
Lift blockade → restore flows
-
Maintain pressure → disrupt global energy
2. Tactical Escalation Without Full War
Firing on vessels — without sinking them — signals controlled escalation:
-
Demonstrates capability
-
Raises risk premiums
-
Avoids immediate large-scale retaliation
This is calibrated coercion, not chaos.
3. Markets Enter “Whiplash Mode”
Within 48 hours:
-
Oil plunged on reopening hopes
-
Now faces renewed upward pressure
Expect:
-
Volatility spikes
-
Energy risk premiums rising again
-
Delayed relief for consumers globally
4. Diplomacy vs. Deadlock
-
U.S.: No deal without nuclear concessions
-
Iran: No negotiations under pressure
This stalemate leaves mediation — particularly via Pakistan — as the only viable path.
If talks fail, the likely trajectory is:
-
Continued maritime confrontations
-
Broader regional spillover
-
Re-escalation into open conflict
#Breaking #Iran #Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #USA #MiddleEast #Markets
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