Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses to near-zero despite truce hitting Iraq hard
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Hormuz Shipping Collapse Disrupts Global Oil as War Fallout Deepens. Traffic through key oil chokepoint plunges despite truce, hitting Iraq and Gulf exports hard
SULAIMANI, April 11 (Kurdish Policy Analysis)
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically in April, signaling a deepening disruption to global energy flows despite a temporary truce in the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran.
New data released by S&P Global indicates that crude oil loading has effectively halted at key Gulf export terminals, including facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
TRAFFIC COLLAPSE
Vessel movement through the strategic waterway has plunged:
- April 9: Just 12 ships transited the strait
- Normal average: 135 ships per day
This represents one of the sharpest slowdowns in recent history, effectively paralyzing a corridor that carries nearly 20% of global oil supply.
OIL FLOWS DISRUPTED
The disruption has impacted approximately:
- 14.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and condensates
Meanwhile, Iranian exports stood at around:
- 1.38 million bpd, reflecting partial continuity despite the conflict
The Strait has remained largely non-functional since late February, following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, which triggered heightened military risks across Gulf waters.
IRAQ HIT HARDEST
Despite earlier exemptions allowing Iraqi tankers to pass, Iraq’s oil sector has suffered a severe contraction:
- Production: Dropped from ~3.5 million bpd to ~1.3 million bpd
- Exports: Fell to 800,000 bpd
The sharp decline underscores Iraq’s vulnerability to maritime disruptions, given its heavy reliance on Gulf export routes.
TRUCE FAILS TO RESTORE FLOW
A recently announced two-week truce has so far failed to restore confidence in maritime transit. Shipping firms remain reluctant to resume normal operations amid:
- Ongoing military risks
- Uncertainty over enforcement of the ceasefire
- Lack of clear security guarantees in the Strait
GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
The continued disruption raises alarm across global energy markets:
- Supply constraints could push oil prices higher
- Energy-importing countries face increased vulnerability
- Strategic reserves may come under pressure if disruption persists
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint where geopolitical conflict translates directly into economic shockwaves.
ANALYSIS
The data suggests that the Strait is not merely under tension—it is operating under de facto closure conditions, even without an official blockade.
While the truce may have paused direct confrontation, it has not restored trust, security, or normal shipping behavior.
As long as military risks remain elevated, the flow of oil through Hormuz will continue to serve as a barometer of regional stability—and a warning signal for the global economy.
#StraitOfHormuz #OilCrisis #Iran #Iraq #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy
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