Basrah Oil Defies Global Rally: Why Iraqi Crude Is Falling While Markets Surge

Sulaimanyah, Kurdish Policy Analysis --Despite rising global benchmarks, Iraq’s Basrah crude slips again—raising fresh concerns over pricing gaps, regional tensions, and export pressures.

Basrah Heavy crude fell to $109.15 per barrel on Wednesday, dropping more than 2% despite a broader rise in global oil prices driven by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Basrah Medium crude also declined in tandem, reflecting pressure on Iraqi export grades even as international benchmarks climbed on supply disruption concerns.

Iraqi crude pricing varies by export destination: shipments to Asia are benchmarked against the average of Dubai and Oman crude, while exports to Europe are linked to Brent, and those to the United States are priced against West Texas Intermediate, each adjusted by market premiums or discounts.

Oil jumps as war risks linger despite ceasefire signals

Oil rose more than 1% on Wednesday, with Brent ‌futures extending gains after a record monthly rise in March, as Middle East volatility kept markets jittery despite reports that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran may be nearing an end.

The front-month Brent contract for June climbed $1.40, or 1.4%, to $105.37 per barrel at 0430 GMT. Brent logged a record monthly gain of 64% ​in March, according to LSEG data that dates back to June 1988.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ​for May rose $1.59, or 1.6%, to $102.97 per barrel.

Prices recovered some of their losses from Tuesday, ⁠when Brent futures for June delivery settled down more than $3 following unconfirmed media reports that Iran's president was ready to ​end the war.

President Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. could end the military campaign within two ​to three weeks and that Iran does not have to make a deal to end the conflict, his clearest declaration yet that he wants to wind down the month-long war.

Still, even if the conflict ends, infrastructure damage is likely to keep supplies tight, ​analysts say.

Oil prices will depend on how quickly supply chains normalize afterwards, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market ​analyst at Phillip Nova.

"Even if it starts to de-escalate, the flow of tankers won't resume right away. shipping costs and ‌insurance, tanker ⁠movement will take time to return to normal," Sachdeva said, adding that the actual damage to oil infrastructure could only be assessed afterwards.

Trump has indicated he could end the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key route through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows, according to ​a Wall Street Journal report.

"Even ​with diplomatic channels reportedly ⁠still active and intermittent comments from the U.S. administration predicting a short end to the conflict, the combination of limited tangible diplomatic progress, continued maritime attacks ​and explicit threats against energy assets keeps supply risks skewed to the upside," ​LSEG analysts ⁠said in a note.

OPEC oil output dropped 7.3 million barrels per day in March compared with the previous month, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday, illustrating the impact of forced export cuts because of the closure of the strait.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude ⁠oil ​output fell by the most in two years in January following ​a severe winter storm that knocked production offline in large swathes of the country, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on ​Tuesday.

#IraqOil #BasrahCrude #OilPrices #EnergyCrisis #GlobalMarkets #MiddleEast #OilNews #Geopolitics #OPEC #BreakingNews

  

#IraqOil #BasrahCrude #OilPrices #EnergyCrisis #GlobalMarkets #MiddleEast #OilNews #Geopolitics #OPEC #BreakingNews

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